Just three rounds to go before the NRL finals kick off, and the battle for a top eight spot is on in earnest.
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While the top three teams (Raiders, Storm, Bulldogs) are assured of playing extra football this season, the rest of the eight is still to be determined.
Tigers and Sea Eagles fans, your team’s finals hopes aren’t officially yet over but they’re hanging on by a thread.
Note: Teams are listed below in order of the current NRL ladder.
1. CANBERRA RAIDERS (40 points, +168)
Predicted finish: 1st
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 100%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 57.1%
Remaining games: Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (A)
Analysis: The Raiders had their final bye in Round 24 after their 28-12 victory over Manly taking them to 40 points and keeping them on top of the table. Canberra fans will be cheering hard for the Bulldogs in Round 25 as if the Storm lose a Raiders minor premiership becomes almost certain. However, the Raiders have to get past the Panthers first in a litmus test of whether they are the real deal in the premiership race. Canberra finish with the Tigers and Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Storm and Bulldogs both face far more daunting runs home including a clash against each other this weekend.
2. MELBOURNE STORM (38 points, +252)
Predicted finish: 2nd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 100%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 40.6%
Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), Roosters (H), Broncos (A)
Analysis: For the first time in a few weeks, the Storm are predicted to finish 2nd by the Fox Sports Lab. A huge game against the Bulldogs next up would see their minor premiership percentage spike, especially if Penrith do them a favour and beat the Raiders. Melbourne have a considerably better points differential than the Raiders and Bulldogs, which gives them a big edge, but a terribly tough run home awaits. All of the teams left on Melbourne’s docket, bar the eighth-placed Roosters, are sitting in the top six. On the injury front, star fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen returns this week while Dally M winning half Jahrome Hughes isn’t likely back until Round 27 at the earliest.
3. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (36 points, +120)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 98.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 2.3%
Remaining games: Storm (A), Panthers (H), Sharks (H)
Analysis: The Bulldogs’ minor premiership chances took a major hit with the loss to the Roosters. Rated a 15.1% chance prior to last weekend, those odds are now at 2.3%, with the minor premiership now essentially a race in two. While a top four spot is all but guaranteed, there’s a very real chance the Bulldogs finish the regular season with no momentum as they take on the Storm this weekend before two other tough match-ups against the Panthers and Sharks.
4. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (32 points, +12)
Predicted finish: 4th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.5%
Chance of finishing top four: 50.6%
Remaining games: Titans (A), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A)
Analysis: It was hardly convincing and it was hardly the performance of a team who will make any noise in the finals, but the Warriors found a way against the Dragons last week to jump back into the top four. They have the softest draw out of any top eight contending team which is why the Fox Lab has them favourites to collect 4th spot with the top three teams well clear of the rest. The chasing pack, starting with Penrith, have a pretty tough run home.
5. PENRITH PANTHERS (31 points, +115)
Predicted finish: 5th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 32.3%
Remaining games: Raiders (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (A)
Analysis: Their top four hopes were slashed in half after the golden point loss to Melbourne, being cut down from 62% to 33%. They are now out of the running for a top two spot and home qualifying final so their focus will be on earning a double chance. The Warriors above them have a soft draw left, but Penrith can apply some real pressure on them if they can beat the Raiders in a Mudgee blockbuster on Friday night. While top four is the goal, Fox League’s Dan Ginnane wondered if a loss this weekend would be all that bad for Penrith “If they lose, top four is pretty much out of the picture,” Ginnane said on Fox League. “Here’s a question, but are they almost better of losing this week? It takes top four out, they know they’re playing knock out football and then they can rest some players. If any team can win from outside the top four, it’s Penrith.”
“Win from anywhere” – Shock top 4 call | 04:01
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6. BRISBANE BRONCOS (30 points, +114)
Predicted finish: 6th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 93.4%
Chance of finishing top four: 13.9%
Remaining games: Knights (A), Cowboys (A), Storm (H)
Analysis: Many wondered how the Broncos would fare without their starting halves pairing against a dangerous Dolphins outfit. They sure missed Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam when trailing by 14 points with 29 minutes to go, but the Broncos looked like a team possessed after finally waking up, scoring four unanswered tries to storm home and win. That victory increased their top eight hopes from 83% to 93% and saw their top four chances spike to 13%. Next up, is a game they simply should win against the Knights, who are in dreadful form, before they finish up with two tough matchup (Cowboys, Storm).
7. CRONULLA SHARKS (30 points, +67)
Predicted finish: 7th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 89.5%
Chance of finishing top four: 2.6%
Remaining games: bye, Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: Thrashed the Titans last week and with a bye upcoming as well as a game against the hapless Knights, a top eight finish for Cronulla is basically all but assured. If they can beat the Knights and the Dogs in Round 27, a top four spot is a very real possibility, especially if the Warriors lose one of their final three.
8. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (28 points, +92)
Predicted finish: 8th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 80%
Chance of finishing top four: 2.3%
Remaining games: Eels (A), Storm (A), Rabbitohs (H)
Analysis: The Roosters’ train rolls on. They stamped their premiership credentials with a dominant win over the Dogs. They take another step closer to a position in the postseason. With games against the Eels and Rabbitohs on the docket, the Roosters should be close to being considered certainties to make the eight.
9. DOLPHINS (26 points, +109)
Predicted finish: 9th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 37.6%
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (A), Titans (H), Raiders (H)
Analysis: Will they fall short of a maiden finals berth for the third straight season? Four weeks ago, that would have been hard to fathom, but since the Dolphins have dropped three of five including a 52-point thumping at the hands of the Roosters. It has left their top eight hopes in limbo as the Roosters’ closed the massive points differential margin. After losing to the Broncos last week, the Dolphins dropped out of the eight. They might very well need to beat Canberra in the final round to earn a top eight spot, even if they win their next two games.
10. MANLY SEA EAGLES (24 points, -24)
Predicted finish: 10th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.7%
Remaining games: Dolphins (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H)
Analysis: Their season went from bad to worse on Sunday when they were dispatched by the Tigers. It all but ended their ability to make the finals as now, they need to win all three remaining games and hope that several other results go in their favour. A solid chance to at least finish their season on a high with a reasonable draw to come but given their recent form, it wouldn’t be a total shock if they lost all three either.
11. WESTS TIGERS (22 points, -121)
Predicted finish: 11th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.7%
Remaining games: Cowboys (H), Raiders (A), Titans (A)
Analysis: The Tigers kept their tiny top eight hopes alive with a big win over Manly. A finals berth is still less than 1% but it’s big win for the Tigers to at least be in the conversation three rounds out given they have collected the last three wooden spoons. Benji Marshall’s men have very winnable games against North Queensland and the Gold Coast. In addition, they are one of the healthier teams in the comp on the injury front. An away test in Canberra will be tough, but not impossible.
OFFICIALLY ELIMINATED FROM FINALS CONTENTION
12. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (22 points, -54)
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (H)
Analysis: Their slim finals hopes ended last weekend in New Zealand. Gutsy performance after losing three to head knocks but fell short nonetheless. Solid enough season for the Red V.
13. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (21 points, -144)
Remaining games: Tigers (A), Broncos (H), bye
Analysis: While Todd Payten’s job isn’t safe by any means, the Cowboys and Payten desperately needed the 38-4 result against the Knights last Sunday. It was an insight into how good this team is when everything is clicking. Next up is a clash against the Tigers at Leichhardt as the joint venture club celebrate the 20-year anniversary of their GF win against the Cowboys. Suffice it to say, it’ll be a game North Queensland will be desperate to win.
14. PARRAMATTA EELS (20 points, -152)
Remaining games: Roosters (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H)
Analysis: A tough loss to swallow last week for Eels fans, dropping a game to the depleted Rabbitohs. A couple of tough games await against likely finals bound teams, so it’ll be a good test to see what this young group is made of.
15. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (20 points, -195)
Remaining games: Dragons (H), bye, Roosters (A)
Analysis: They’ve hit some form of late, winning their last two games. Wayne Bennett will be urging this team to finish what has been a horror season with some momentum. With two games left against old, storied rivals, it shouldn’t take much for the Bunnies to get up for those, especially if there’s a chance spoil the Roosters’ finals hopes.
16. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (18 points, -186)
Remaining games: Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Eels (A)
Analysis: With the Rabbitohs’ win last weekend, it appears only two teams can collect the wooden spoon. The Knights and the Titans.It’s been a tough run for the Knights, whose last win came back in Round 16 against the Dolphins. Adding insult to injury was last weekend’s loss to another struggling team in the Cowboys. Newcastle were outplayed from the word go, thrashed by 34 points. They have a tough run home and will likely start outsiders in all three of those games.
17. GOLD COAST TITANS (16 points, -187)
Remaining games: Warriors (H), Dolphins (A), Tigers (H)
Analysis: The Titans were soundly beaten last week, thumped by over 30 points by the Sharks. They are warm favourites to collect this year’s wooden spoon. Looking ahead, there’s a tough run looming for Hasler’s side, who face two teams well and truly in the finals mix before the in-form Tigers to close out their season. They’ll need to win at least one of those and hope the Knights lose all three to avoid a wooden spoon.
